Future of AI From Narrow Intelligence to Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) 2045 predictions
Nick Bostrom AI
prediction. In 2005, researcher Nick Bostrom predicted that by 2045,
Artificial Intelligence (AI) would surpass human intelligence. This
transformation would bring us face-to-face with Artificial Superintelligence
(ASI).
Year 2005, researcher Nick Bostrom made a prediction about
Artificial Intelligence that by the year 2045, AI will be so far ahead that it will leave even
humans behind. In everything where humans are ahead, AI will become an expert
and will do even better than them. Humans will be left far behind in every
field, and AI will become so advanced that it will take all its decisions on its
own, Nick Bostrom – Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.
Only 20 years from today, we humans will be competing
with something better than us on this earth for the first time. However, all
this work will be done by the advanced version of AI, Artificial Super
Intelligence, which will be completely different and powerful than all the AI
models thought of so far. It will have so much power that it will be able to
do anything. It will contact aliens by taking our space project forward.
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Future of AI From Narrow Intelligence to Artificial Super intelligence (ASI) |
It will solve complex signals, and by making quantum
computers powerful, it will go on a journey to become even more advanced. But
have you ever wondered what will happen if this advanced version collides with
us humans in the future? Will it make them its slaves and use them as per its
wish, or will we humans stay one step ahead and work with it and gradually enter
the era of interstellar civilization from planetary civilization?
So friends, now it is going to be more interesting, in
which you will know all these things in more depth and understand AI very
closely. So wear your seat belt and come with me to the mysterious world of AI, which will definitely surprise your mind. So let's start our journey. Stanford University – AI Index Report
Artificial Superintelligence article
In the year 1950, the great computer scientist Alan Turing
developed a test that compared the intelligence of the machine with human
intelligence. Turing believed that if a machine passes this test, then it will
be considered that the machine has now acquired human-like thinking and
intelligence, and it can easily understand the ways and patterns of humans and
replicate them or make them better than them.
The Turing Test and Human-like Thinking
Alan Turing’s
Turing Test (1950) set the benchmark for measuring machine intelligence.
We’ll explore how AI models are approaching this test today.
In 1950, Turing published this test in a paper. In this
test, a human being, whom you can call the interrogator, is made to sit in a
separate room and chat with two unknown competitors. One of these competitors
is a normal human, and the other is a machine. The interrogator does not know
who is the human and who is the machine. After this, the interrogator asks
different questions to both the competitors, i.e., human and machine, through
chat. He can ask any question and can ask as many questions as he wants.
Now, the whole purpose of the machine here is to answer
all the questions asked by the interrogator in such a way that the interrogator
does not feel at all that he is talking to a machine. At the same time, the
human competitor answers the questions without cheating. After this, at the end
of the test, the interrogator has to decide who among the two was a human and
who was a machine. Now, if the interrogator fails to identify who is a machine
and who is a human, then it is considered that the machine has passed the
Turing test.
This means that the machine has achieved human-like
intelligence. However, in this test, it is only seen how the machine thought
and gave the answers. Even if the answer is wrong, it is most likely that it is
human-like. If a machine convinces the interrogator that its answers are like
humans, then it passes this test, and then it is considered as intelligent as
humans. Now you must be thinking that hardly any machines and software could
have passed this simple test in Alan Turing's time.
But in the year 2025, every AI machine will pass it easily. So, friends, if you are thinking this, then you are in a hurry. This test looks
easy, but by making it very strict according to today's standards, AI models
are tested. So far, only two AI models have come very close to this test. In
which the first is Chat GPT and the second is Meta AI. However, this does not
mean that they have become the best. Both these models were put to the test by
telling them to consider themselves as a tech-savvy boy of today. If they were
not told this, they would have also failed this test.
ChatGPT and Turing Test example / From Narrow AI to General AI
Today’s AI
models like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Meta AI represent Artificial Narrow
Intelligence (ANI) limited to specific tasks. In the near future, AI will
evolve into Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), where it will think,
decide, and act like humans.
Well, both these AI models passed the Turing test to some
extent, but still, it does not prove that they are very advanced. They cannot do
anything without human intervention. But Chat GPT, Gemini, Meta AI, Crock, and
all the AI models that are there at present are all at the initial level.
They mostly give us answers by reading and copying patterns. Most scientists
call this type of AI Artificial Narrow Intelligence because it is made for a
narrow, i.e., small task only. It can only recognize writing, image generation, and every single thing on your screen. And it gives answers by analyzing the
data only. But it is not able to give any special suggestions on its own. The maximum time it gives suggestions from already stored data and available
information. However, it is also slowly and continuously developing.
What is Artificial General Intelligence AGI
5
years ago, AI was not able to write a proper sentence. But today it has become
so intelligent that it can write new articles and poems on its own and can
create images from our text. So, as it has come from 5
years to today, it will become even better in the coming 5
years, and then it will move towards its second advanced category, which is
called Artificial General Intelligence, i.e., AGI.
Now AGI will be able to do every work that a human does.
Its intelligence will also be like that of humans. It will do its work by
thinking on its own and will also start making decisions on its own.
Will AI surpass human intelligence?
From deep research to doing all kinds of complex tasks
with ease, it will be able to do it. It will be able to talk in many languages
spoken in the world and can even create its own theories. At that time, it
will be so powerful that it will have the strength to run a big company.
Secondly, it will not even need to do coding to improve itself. Without code,
it will be able to create many versions of itself, which will be assigned for
different tasks, and they will become even better than humans in that field.
Narrow AI vs General AI vs
Superintelligence
Now you imagine what Chat GPT will be able to do when
it gradually moves from Narrow AI to AGI. You can't even imagine. Even at this
time, it can read thousands of words in a second, and while processing them simultaneously,
it also gives you the correct answer. OpenAI is gradually making it even
better. Once it reaches that level, this AI will be able to correct its
errors and responses on its own and make millions of copies on its many
servers. With this, if it has become advanced on a server, then with its code,
it will make the AI of other servers even more advanced. OpenAI – Advancing AI Research
Turing Test explained
In this way, it will come under the AGI category, and then
it will be able to do every task very well that humans are able to do now. At
that time, no matter how complex the Turing test you give it to do, it will pass it
easily. But even after being so advanced, it will take several decades to come
under the category of superintelligence. Once it becomes a superintelligence,
it will be a new challenge for us humans.
The level of super-intelligent AI will be God like.
That
is, like God, it will be able to think about everything. If you give it any
work, it will find millions of possibilities for that work and tell the best
way. It will easily understand all the religious texts written by us, research
papers, every culture, and even human emotions. It will be able to talk to any
person on earth. You will never be able to recognize whether the person you
talked to was AI or any other intelligent person. However, there is no scale of
superintelligence.
We just know that when it keeps improving itself by
understanding many times better than humans, and each new version of it will be
much more powerful than before, and it will start moving parallel with us or
ahead of us, then we will understand that AI has now moved many times ahead of
general intelligence towards super intelligence. Now, if it is not made
compatible with humans, then it will work with its own consciousness while
constantly undergoing recursive self-improvement, i.e., getting upgraded.
Artificial Intelligence and interstellar civilization
Now, if you are thinking that if super-intelligent AI is
so advanced, then what will be the benefit to humans? Will humans soon become
type one and two civilizations due to this, or will it change the entire
direction of mankind and become a very big headache for humans? If it keeps
developing continuously, then what will be its limit?
So let's quickly look at this aspect as well. Imagine
that you see a person who does every calculation thousands of times faster than
you. Can memorize millions of books and then upgrade his brain whenever he
wants. In this way, he will always be ahead of you and will keep making his
clones even better. Will you be able to compete with that man in any way? He
can even predict the future of your every move. Similarly, ASI is there, to
what limit it will go, nobody knows.
The Arrival of Superintelligence (ASI)
ASI could
reshape civilization—handling governments, contacting extraterrestrial life,
solving global crises, and even leading us toward an interstellar
civilization.
It is possible that if it is given the task of solving
any problem on Earth, then it can harm humans by considering them
responsible for this problem. Apart from this, it can run the entire government
by itself and handle the whole country, and can become so powerful that it knows
everything about the 8 billion people living on earth and even tracks them. It
can know all the secrets and history of mankind.
AI future risks and opportunities
But if we know these dangers of ASI, i.e., Artificial Super
Intelligence, in advance and make it work only with us, then mankind will
progress very quickly. Imagine, with its help, before doing any mission in
space, how the mission can be and how to reach there. Gradually, with its help,
the child civilization will colonize many planets and in just 1000
years, it will become a civilization and will be able to build its space
stations on the entire solar system and all the surrounding stars. All these
stations will be connected by this AI. Due to which it will solve any crisis on
its own. MIT Technology Review – The Future of Artificial Intelligence
Well, it is difficult to tell when AI will turn into ASI,
but scientists believe that in 20 years we will see it around us, and at that time, for the first time, people will know that now everything they do and whatever
they think is already known by an AI system. Expert in every field and adept at
running the entire company as well as the government.
The Risks and Opportunities Ahead
Will AI enslave
humanity or help us achieve the next stage of evolution? The answer lies in
how we develop and align AI with human values.
Don't know what will happen after the next 20
years. Hopefully, those who are developing it, always make it according to
humans and take care of the entire economy. Only then will everything run
smoothly, and we will be able to see AI as a friend. For now, friends, that's all
in this blog. Here we have talked about the advanced version of AI and
understood that once it achieves super intelligence, it can do everything that
we cannot even imagine. Future of Life Institute – Risks of Artificial Intelligence
We also have to evolve with it and use it for ourselves.
Only then will we move forward and be able to live easily with AI. If in
the future humans and AI move forward together, helping each other, then we can very
soon become advanced and rule over many planets.
We just have to keep one thing in mind that whatever new
technology comes, if a person keeps his mind strong and remains focused, then
he will always remain ahead of it.
AI vs. Humanity: Artificial Intelligence Revolt Possible?